Monday, September 21, 2009

Is hyperbolic discounting rational?

In dynamic economic models, future periods are typically discounted geometrically, i.e., at a constant rate. There is, however, mounted evidence from experiments that people discount hyperbolically: there is much discounting the first period, and then it is geometric again. This evidence has been put forward as an argument against the rationality of individuals.

Doyne Farmer and John Geanakoplos argue that hyperbolic discounting is observationally equivalent to geometric discounting with uncertainty about future discount rates. While this may rescue rationality, one has to ask oneself whether this makes any empirical sense. And for that there is little support at the moment.

4 comments:

  1. Geanakoplos is a die-hard theoretician. He may be very bright, but he never cared for relevance.

    ReplyDelete
  2. What's the difference between this and "Strotz meets Allais" by Halevy 2008?

    ReplyDelete
  3. I also remember a paper a few years ago, when I was studying hyperbolic discounting in grad school, which showed hyperbolic discounting can be the result of uncertainty in the arrival rate of opportunities for consumption. It seems that many reasonable departures from time consistency generate hyperbolic discounting.

    ReplyDelete

You can post anonymously, but I encourage you to use a nickname. It makes discussion easier. Please note that long comments will be truncated. Comment in several pieces if you have a lot to say.