Predicting the Nobel Prize

There are plenty of blogs trying to predict who is going to win the next Nobel Prize. Let's introduce some objectivity in this by using the RePEc rankings. Below, I look at various criteria and the three top papers or economists who have not yet won a prize.

• Most cited articles: Manuel Arellano and Stephen Bond, Greg Mankiw, David Romer and David Weil, Paul Romer.
  
• Same, with citations weighted by simple impact factors: Lars Hansen, John Taylor, Avinash Dixit.
  
• Same, with citations weighted by recursive impact factors: Lars Hansen, Rajnish Mehra, Robert Barro.
  
• Authors, overall ranking: Andrei Shleifer, Robert Barro, Peter C. B. Phillips.
  
• Authors, most citations: Andrei Shleifer, Robert Barro, Mark Gertler.
  
• Same, weighted by simple impact factors: Andrei Shleifer, Robert Barro, Mark Gertler.
  
• Same, weighted by recursive impact factors: Andrei Shleifer, Robert Barro, Lawrence Summers.
  
• h-index: Andrei Shleifer, Robert Barro, Jean Tirole.
  
• Wu-index: Andrei Shleifer, Robert Barro, Ben Bernanke.
  
• Number of citing authors: Robert Barro, Andrei Shleifer, Olivier Blanchard.
  

Note that I have not used any criteria that puts more weight on recent citations, as I do not believe the prize committee thinks this way. There are a lot of macroeconomists above, probably a reflection of the fact that it is a wider field and thus people get more cited. But then, they should also get a proportional share of Nobel Prizes. Now, applying rigid rules is never a good way to perform forecasts, so let us through some subjectivity in there.

From the list above, Andrei Shleifer emerges as a favorite. His chances are, however, severely hampered by the Harvard-Russia scandal. That would leave Robert Barro, but I have a hard time imagining him getting the prize alone. With Thomas Sargent? The latter is one of those who have been extremely influential without being cited that much. In the same category are the often mentioned Eugene Fama and Kenneth French, who have the drawback of pioneering work in finance, and awarding the prize during the current financial crisis would reduce the credibility of the prize. This could also discount the chances of Lars Hansen, but his work on empirical asset pricing has had implication way beyond finance. Another personal favorite is Jean Tirole, who should have received it with Jean-Jacques Laffont before the latter died of cancer. Finally, let us not forget Paul Romer, who is fourth for several of the criteria above, including the very first one.

In conclusion: Robert Barro (with Thomas Sargent?), with Fama-French, Jean Tirole, Lars Hansen and Paul Romer as dark horses.